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CWA # 9, 18 May 2018
Global Politics
Do we need the Quad?

  Lakshmi V Menon

India’s participation in Quad may not just be an explicit move against China. It is a calculated measure to secure its interests in a quickly evolving Indo-Pacific. 

Soon after the meeting of Quad (India, Japan, Australia, United States of America) in 2017, the spokesperson from the Indian foreign ministry said that “a free open, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific region serves the long-term interests of all countries in the region and the world at large.” Some nuances were observed.

In October 2017, the US’s acting assistant secretary of state for South Asia stated that Washington was “looking at a working level quadrilateral meeting in the near term.” The emphasis was on bringing together countries with common values “to reinforce those values in the global architecture.” She stated that it would “coordinate” international infrastructural development through means that “don’t include predatory financing or unsustainable debt” (referring to China’s Belt and Road Initiative).

The absence of China’s name from the narrative creates no doubts about the elephant in the room. Irrespective of what Quad says, the game is quite clearly ‘containing China’. There is nothing evil about this. China’s rise has not been “peaceful”. Beijing has often resorted to threats and intimidation, for example Bhutan on the Dokhlam issue; South China Sea dispute.

Each country in the Quad has issues with a resurgent China. However, all the four countries are burdened by their economic and exchange relations with China, unlike in 2007(during initiation of Quad) when Japan wore that title.

Take Australia for instance. Australia’s is the most China-dependent economy in the Quad. More than 33 percent of all stocks from Australia goes to China. A paranoid fear of a Chinese retaliation made Prime Minister Kevin Rudd haul out of the Quad in 2008. Canberra’s rejoining has stirred domestic criticism. “It is a possibly hazardous reaction to China’s power and goes against over 30 years of Australian strategy commitment with China,” says Geoff Raby, a previous Australian minister to China. He questions Australia’s loyalty if an Indo-China clash happened.

If the US withdraws from Asia, it needs stronger trade with China. So, for Japan, irritating the Dragon isn’t a choice. Trump’s sudden appreciation of Xi Jinping during his visit to Beijing, has not gone unnoticed in Japan. The scare of a closer US-China relation, excluding Japan exists. A replacement of Shinzo Abe or better relations with China will make Japan lose interest in Quad.

Trump’s “America First” approach, unpredictability, and withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership create uncertainties for India. He also avoided mentioning Beijing’s human rights violations and its military development in the South China Sea. It is a genuine worry whether Trump will exit the Quad through a morning tweet.

Trump organization’s National Security Strategy (NSS), after designating India as a “leading global power”, chose the term “Indo-Pacific” (as a result of rethinking the “Asia-Pacific”). However, it offers no solid policy changes. Russia, India’s strategic partner (provides 70 percent of arms), was termed “revisionist” (alongside China). NSS also called for neutralizing the “malign activities” by Iran, with whom India maintains strategic relations. There is nothing with respect to Pakistan, one of India’s main concerns.

In spite of the “Indo-Pacific”, US declines to connect with India on issues identifying with the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, two of the most essential outside zones for India. The term means an Indian military obligation to the US – drove organizations in the Pacific Ocean. There is no equal US responsibility regarding issues of Indian concern (Pakistan and West Asia).

For India, Quad aka “Asian Arc of Democracies” offers no special pickings. Instead of being obsessed with countering China, India must use its political and strategic might to address its unfair rejection from significant international organizations. Despite being Asia’s third-biggest economy, India isn’t a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). India is a major benefactor yet is not a member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). India is also not a part of G7. Moreover, the world’s largest democracy, the third-largest military and a top troop-provider of United Nations peacekeeping, has no position in the UN Security Council.

India must ensure its legitimate position in international committees to tackle the Chinese hegemony, and not through an insecure union that is buried in logical inconsistencies.

However, India’s participation in Quad may not just be an explicit move against China. It is a calculated measure to secure its interests in a quickly evolving Indo-Pacific. Besides, vital inconsistencies among the Quad nations dishearten India from shaping a formal organization against its immediate and largest neighbour. The India-China relationship is taking on a defining structure in the Indo-Pacific, and New Delhi is more disposed to sustain it than revoke it.

Lakshmi V Menon is currently pursuing Masters in International Studies in Stella Maris College, Chennai

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